What's the deal with this whole Game, Set and Match thing in Tennis ?

I mean if I want to know who is the best at hitting balls why not just tally the total number of point.
Research and LLMs give some mildly convincing answers, like :
  • Dividing the match into games and sets gives players chances to reset and regroup
  • A player can lose a few points but still win the match
  • Sets allow for comebacks, which add drama
But honestly, other sports that don’t use sets still have comebacks, drama, and breaks for rest and strategy.

So what really makes the usage of Sets different?

One thing stands out: Sets seem to make some points more impactful than others.

But it made me wonder... Is that even true? And if so how much?

So I made this ! (WIP)

A Simple Yet Tedious Game

  • Each player has an energy pool used to make moves.
  • In each round, the player chooses how much energy to use.
  • After each round, both players recover 1 energy.
  • In each round, one of the players is randomly awarded a point.
  • The first player to reach 3 points wins the set.

How the winner of a point is determined:

  • Let E = energy used by the player.
  • The dummy always uses 1 energy.
  • A random number R is chosen between 0 and (E + 1).
  • If R < E, the player wins the point.
  • Otherwise, the dummy wins the point.

This means the probability that the player wins the point is E / (E + 1).

  • You play against a dummy opponent.
  • The dummy always uses 1 energy per round.
  • The game doesn't "end" — it's just a toy game for trying out different strategies

Feel free to keep playing but be warned: even with the optimal strategy, your edge over the dummy is so small that playing manually could take hundreds of round before gaining a meaningfull lead. You might want to head over to the next tab sonner rather than later.

Try it!



Let a bot do the work

Tell the bot what to do and see if you can find a good strategy off the top of your head

Can you consistently beat the dummy?

Let's tinker!

Use the botID to simultaneously evaluate a lot of different strategies at once.

Get a feel for what could be the best strategy.

Best Set Win Ratio: 0%

Forget the tinkering

What are we? Macro Data Refiners? Let's automate the tinkering.

At this point, it's not much of a game, so here is a solution. Feel free to discard it and find your own.

Or even better, maybe you can find a better one?

[
 [
  1,
  1,
  1
 ],
 [
  1,
  1,
  1
 ],
 [
  1,
  1,
  1
 ]
]

What if there are more points in a set ?

energy: winrate:

We may need a better way to find the best strategy when N gets bigger...

What if there are more points in a set ?

We may need a better way to find the best strategy when N gets bigger...

Let's use a rule set closer to actual Tennis'